It is difficult for Ukraine to turn the situation around in the `pan of fire` Dnipro

(Dan Tri) – Experts assess Ukraine’s offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro River as a success after months of tiring counterattacks, but unlikely to become a real breakthrough.

Both Ukraine and Russia last week confirmed that Kiev’s forces had taken root on the east bank of the Dnipro River (Graphic: AFP).

Both Ukraine and Russia last week confirmed that Kiev’s forces had taken root on the east bank of the Dnipro River, or the left bank.

On November 20, the Ukrainian army announced that it had pushed back Russian soldiers `3-8km` from the river bank.

`Ukraine’s overall mission in the Dnipro left bank is to conduct an offensive operation there with a view to reaching Crimea (Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula) which Russia announced it annexed in 2014,` said the human military observer.

Mr. Nacke noted that `it is impossible to predict what the future situation will be because a lot depends on the decisions the two sides will make`.

He said that Ukraine had succeeded in establishing a `fairly wide foothold on the left bank` and was working to expand this zone.

Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-appointed leader of Ukraine’s Kherson province currently controlled by Moscow, said last week that dozens of Ukrainian soldiers were holed up on the outskirts of the village of Krynky on the left bank.

Mr. Saldo did not appreciate this development and said that Ukrainian soldiers deployed on the left bank only lived `a little more than 2 days` on average.

Many analysts believe that the area currently controlled by the Ukrainian army on the left bank is too small.

Michel Goya, a military expert and former French army colonel, said Ukraine’s activities were `quite limited and symbolic`.

That operation `allowed them to claim a small victory after the failure of Ukraine’s main axis of attack,` Mr. Goya added.

According to two sources in the French military and intelligence, the village of Krynky does not seem to be Moscow’s top priority, in the context of Russian troops focusing on the city of Avdiivka in the eastern region of Donetsk.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to open fire on Russian positions in Kherson province (Photo: AP).

For weeks, the Russian army has sought to surround the city of Avdiivka in the country’s industrial heartland, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.

Alexander Khramchikhin, a military analyst in Moscow, called Ukraine’s gains on the left bank `minor` and not enough for Kiev to deploy more equipment.

`If there were no equipment, there would have been no attack at all,` Khramchikhin told AFP.

Military analysts believe that to turn the current success into a real breakthrough, the Ukrainian army must deploy more troops on the left bank.

Mr. Nacke said that Kiev’s immediate task is to `cut off Russia’s supply routes`.

`This is possible,` he said.

Mr. Nacke said Russia suffered significant losses in the southern province of Kherson.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have each been holding the right and left banks of the Dnipro River in Kherson province for more than a year, after Russia withdrew its troops from the east bank (right bank) in November 2022.

Mr. Goya said that Ukraine’s activities here `maintained pressure on the Russians, forcing the enemy to transfer part of its reserve forces to the Dnipro River front, to the detriment of other areas.`

Analysts say Ukraine will need to deploy thousands of people and heavy vehicles on the left bank if it wants to open a direct route to Crimea.

`The big challenge for Ukraine is ensuring the long-term operation of units larger than company level,` said Ukraine analyst Mykola Bielieskov.

`Equipment transport and logistics bridges across Dnipro are essential, but temporary bridges will be exposed to Russian air and ground fire that has not yet been completely overcome,` he said.